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Chile Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Chile Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: Given a lack of below-ground potential, Chile suffers from a severe deficit of hydrocarbon
supplies and a high dependence on imported energy feedstock. However, the country's
leadership recognises the unlikelihood of a trend reversal, implementing a new national energy strategy to
spur greater development of the sector where possible. The Bachelet administration has continued Chile's
traditions of a liberal economy, regulatory transparency, and encouragement of foreign investment. Chile's

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Mozambique Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Mozambique Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: A key takeaway from recent exploration and appraisal work in Mozambique is growing
confidence that operators have proven sufficient amounts of gas to support large LNG export projects.
However, FID delays, politics, costs, infrastructure constraints and the ongoing regulatory overhaul are
challenges the country will face as it moves from exploration to production. While the timing of first LNG is
particularly difficult to pin-point, we expect Mozambique to make its presence felt in the global LNG market
by the end of the decade.

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Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: Thailand is expected to remain driven by a strong oil and gas demand far outweighing the
domestic production over our forecast period to 2023. With declining oil and gas reserves, we expect longterm
oil and gas production trends to remain stagnant or negative, despite a slight increase in the mediumterm.
However, the 21st licensing round, scheduled for early 2015, poses an upside risk to our current
reserves and production forecast.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Thai oil and gas sector are:

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Brazil Power Report Q1 2015

Brazil Power Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: Brazil's power sector continues to offer significant investment opportunities due to its
unmatched size, government's commitment to power capacity expansion and large prospective in
renewables and natural gas-fired thermal sectors. However, the country's potential is hindered by
its continued dependence on unreliable hydroelectricity, weak infrastructure and regulatory interjections.
In addition, Brazil's darkening macroeconomic trajectory has weighed heavily on our forecast for longterm

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Myanmar Power Report Q1 2015

Myanmar Power Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: The Myanmar power sector is set to grow impressively over the coming decade, and will be one
of the fastest growing markets in the region. We also expect the country's energy mix to change over the
decade, and this change will create numerous opportunities across the sector.
We are forecasting electricity generation in Myanmar to grow by 16.1% in 2015, which is slightly lower
than our estimates of 17.5% growth in 2014. We believe that growth in 2015 will continue to be primarily

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Brazil Renewables Report Q1 2015

Brazil Renewables Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: We are maintaining our 2015 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in
Brazil this quarter, but have revised up our long-term forecasts to account for the strong results of the
reserve auction in 2014. Wind energy will continue to be the main driver of growth in 2015. Biomass
capacity will also grow sizeably.
Key Trends And Developments
■ The Brazilian energy agency Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) announced that it had designed a

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South Korea Renewables Report Q1 2015

South Korea Renewables Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: Our outlook for the South Korean renewable energy sector remains unchanged this quarter, but
several recent developments in the regulatory environment pose significant risks to our long-term forecasts.
We are maintaining our 2015 growth forecast for non-hydropower renewable energy in South Korea this
quarter as our assumptions for the sector remain relevant. Growth in 2015 will primarily be driven by wind
and biomass energy, and solar energy to a lesser extent. We have maintained our long-term forecasts for

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Turkey Water Report Q1 2015

Turkey Water Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: This quarter we have expanded our forecast coverage to include extraction by source (including
spring, well, sea, river and reservoir) and mains, non mains and household water consumption. These
additions have resulted in a substantial alteration to our existing forecast figures.
We believe the drought which plagued the country for much of 2014, the reduction of the water resources,
and the rising demand for thermal electricity generation pose serious risks to the Turkish water sector.

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Portugal Renewables Report Q1 2015

Portugal Renewables Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Growth in the Portuguese renewable energy market continues to be sluggish, with the country's
embattled economy weighing on growth prospects in the power and renewables industries. The wind sector
dominates the renewables mix. We do not expect growth to pick up markedly as investor sentiment remains
low and the renewables project pipeline is limited.
Portugal has been pursuing a green energy agenda since 2001, adopting the E4 Programme (Energy

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Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: With no domestic energy resources, Hong Kong will be required to meet growing oil and gas
demand through imports alone. While Hong Kong can ostensibly fall back on China in order to fulfil its
energy needs, there is some resistance to an overreliance on its parent state from both private and public
entities. Still, as Hong Kong becomes increasingly politically intertwined with Beijing, so too will its energy
policy, and the city-state is increasingly likely to turn to the mainland to achieve its goal of curbing its

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Bahrain Water Report Q1 2015

Bahrain Water Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Overall little has changed in the Bahrain water sector; however, we have upgraded our forecasts
following the release of new historical data. We anticipate that the need for greater water security and more
efficient distribution infrastructure will continue to be the key issues facing the water services sector, yet the
subdued project pipeline and the difficulties in obtaining financing will offer minimal opportunities for
water infrastructure groups.

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Russia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Russia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Russia continues its attempts to thwart US and EU sanctions, though will struggle to develop
more technically challenging shale and offshore prospects. That said, there is progress with onshore field
developments in East and West Siberia that will be crucial to mitigating heavy declines from maturing
conventional fields. The biggest obstacle in the way of further growth is the dominance of a few large local
and state-backed players in the market, which makes projects vulnerable to these firms' growing financial
commitments.

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Italy Water Report Q1 2015

Italy Water Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: We have extended our forecasts this quarter to cover new indicators, including extraction by
source (lake, river, reservoir, desalination, ground water, spring water, and non-mains consumption).
Overall we maintain our outlook on the Italian water sector, emphasising the need for further
consolidation, improved management and additional investment. However, given the economic slowdown
and continued government financing issues, we do not anticipate much in the way of improvement over our
forecast period.

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Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Fighting has derailed the country's fragile production recovery, adding further downside
pressure to its bearish long-term production outlook. With the government claiming loose control of the
major oil fields, output could start to revive within the quarter. However, given the fractured and volatile
nature of the conflict and the heavy rebel presence in the oil-producing states, we anticipate more lasting
production outages.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:

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South Africa Water Report Q1 2015

South Africa Water Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: We have maintained our water forecasts this quarter, as South Africa's water industry continues
to remain comparatively strong, with a large amount of projects in the pipeline. However, with numerous
issues plaguing the water services sector, and limited funds, we anticipate little in the way of new
infrastructure project developments over the coming year.
We highlight various core problems facing the water sector in South Africa. The first of these is the

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Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: An unsettled regulatory environment continues to weigh on development of Tanzania's
substantial gas resources. A muted response to the latest licensing round signals market sentiment has
begun to weaken, in spite of a string of major discoveries. Failure to pass the Natural Gas Policy in 2015
will threaten delay to FID on the Lindi LNG project, with downside risk to first production by 2022.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Tanzania's oil and gas sector are:

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Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Trinidad & Tobago has benefitted from a strong pipeline of upstream investment in the oil and
gas sector. The impact of a closing market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the US has been
ameliorated by growing shipments to Europe, South American and Asia in particular. We continue to
forecast growth in natural gas output to moderate by the end of the decade and expect only incremental
gains liquids production.
The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:

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Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Turkey will remain heavily dependent upon oil and gas imports for the foreseeable future.
Phase II of Shah Deniz and the decision to proceed with the TAP and TANAP natural gas pipelines will
cement Turkey's position as a critical transit country.. There is upside potential to domestic energy
production from the Black Sea and unconventional developments, although it remains too early for either to
be factored into our forecasts. Mounting investment into exploration activities underscores the

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Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Turkmenistan's growing gas reserves have the country's energy profile on a positive trajectory,
as reflected by our forecasts for strong growth in gas production over the coming years. Our forecast for
gas production to reach 108.8bcm per annum by 2018 implies an average growth rate of 7.4% per annum.
The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it
shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas
imports by 2020.

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Nordics Power Report Q1 2015

Nordics Power Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: With our fundamental assumptions for the three Nordic markets covered in this report
unvaried, our forecasts for their power sectors remain largely unchanged this quarter. Overall, we maintain
our view that, while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone
remains a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the three Nordic countries, as
more regional instability could undermine their economic activity. In terms of sectoral developments, we

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