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Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Increases in export duties on both sugar and wheat - both announced towards the end of 2014 -
are indicators of the government's willingness to support the interests of producers over consumers. Sugar
prices in particular remain elevated in Pakistan compared to prices on the world market. Prices for
Pakistan's core agricultural commodities have generally been weak in 2014 and Q115, but we see rice and
cotton in particular gathering support in 2015 and over the later years of our forecast period to 2019. We

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Oman Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Oman Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: We have upwardly revised our construction industry growth forecast for Oman in 2015 on the
back of stronger than expected official data and strong momentum in the project pipeline, particularly in
non-residential construction and transport infrastructure. As such, we currently forecast construction
industry real growth of 6.7% y-o-y for 2015 and an average of 4.8% over the next five years.
Key Trends And Developments
■ We forecast gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to grow by 7.0% in real terms in both 2014 and 2015,

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Russia Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Russia Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

We have considerably downgraded our outlook for medium-term growth across the general Russian
agricultural sector. A currency crisis leading to a severe deterioration in the fiscal situation of the Russian
government will result in lower subsidies to the developing dairy and livestock industries. As such, we have
revised down our outlook for both out to 2018/19. That said, the country's ban on agricultural imports from
certain countries will provide a boon to production over the coming year, as domestic producers take

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Thailand Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Thailand Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: The near-term outlook for Thailand's construction and infrastructure sectors had improved due
to greater political and policy certainty. However, at the time of writing the government had just postponed
elections from October 2015 to an unspecified date in early 2016, which has the potential to prolong
political uncertainty and incite further unrest. Further, the long-term outlook for both sectors remains
highly uncertain due to the potential for further project delays, revisions and cancellations from political
and financing factors.

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Argentina Defence and Security Report 2015

Argentina Defence and Security Report 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has had an eventful year. With repeated visits to the
hospital it has affected her mid-term elections results. Although her party remains in control of both houses,
there is a distinct lack of power she now holds over proposing new legislature as well as amending the
current two term limit on presidential elects. Due to failing health and her lack of influence within the
Argentine government BMI expects her not to run for president again at the end of 2015. This will greatly

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United Arab Emirates Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

United Arab Emirates Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: We are maintaining our bullish forecasts for the UAE's construction sector for 2015, with our
view premised on a recovery in the vitally important residential and non-residential sectors as well as an
increasingly buoyant infrastructure project pipeline. Some investors remain cautious, especially given the
pace of house price increases over 2014 in Dubai, although at present we do not believe there to be a risk
of overheating in the market.
Factors Driving Construction Industry Growth

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Japan Defence and Security Report Q1 2015

Japan Defence and Security Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Landmark constitutional changes in 2014 will continue to have a significant impact on Japan's
defence policy and role in regional and international security in 2015. Key reforms to Article 9 of the
constitution have opened the doors to the international market for Japanese defence firms, who can now
export defence systems and cooperate on joint ventures with international partners. In addition, these
constitutional changes have edged Japan towards military normalisation, paving the way for a more active

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United Kingdom Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

United Kingdom Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: We are maintaining our forecasts for construction industry value real growth in the UK at 3.5%
for 2015, cementing the UK as one of the fastest growing developed markets for infrastructure and
construction in Europe. The UK has one of the strongest infrastructure project pipelines in Western Europe,
although we note that the danger of delays to its realisation owing to the upcoming general election.
Key Trends And Developments
■ We expect momentum in the residential sector to continue to be robust in 2015, buoyed further by

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Turkey’s Mining Fiscal Regime: H2 2014

Turkey’s Mining Fiscal Regime: H2 2014

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

Turkey has a variety of mineral resources, including iron ore, copper, nickel, cobalt, and gold. The country’s mining industry is governed by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Mining Law No. 3213 of 1985, amended by Law No. 5995 of June 2004, provides both local and foreign investors with a more investment-friendly environment.

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Jordan Defence and Security Report 2015

Jordan Defence and Security Report 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Amid regional instability, Jordan remains a key U.S. ally and we expect this defence
relationship to develop further over the course of 2015. As defence budgets tend to grow amidst increased
threat perceptions, for 2015, we forecast Jordan's defence expenditure to grow at annual rate of 9.7% to
bring spending to USD2.8bn despite stagnation in the wider economy.
BMI determines an overall upward trend in the annual rate of growth in Jordan's defence expenditure. We

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Venezuela Infrastructure Report 2015

Venezuela Infrastructure Report 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Declining global oil prices, high levels of national debt and substantial inflation have all
contributed to a further downgrading of our forecasts for Venezuela's ailing construction sector. Few new
projects are coming to the pipeline and existing construction projects are often subject to extensive delays
and rising debts as costs of key supplies increase. Venezuela continues to present an unattractive foreign
investment environment, and there is little scope for future growth unless fundamental economic and
political reforms are enacted.

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Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: We hold a cautious outlook towards the Bangladesh agriculture sector. The latest finding of
high levels of toxic substances in poultry feed brings much cause for concern as it reflects on the low food
safety standards employed by the country, even in its largest agriculture sector. Indeed, structural problems
still plague the industry. In the medium term, for example, the frequent occurrences of strikes, or hartals
and road blockages will keep our optimism for the industry at bay as these often aggravate the logistical

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Brazil Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Brazil Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Brazil's construction sector saw an overall contraction in 2014, as the industry suffered from a
subdued domestic economy, an uncertain political environment in the run up to the Presidential elections in
October 2014 and a drop-off in demand in the wake of the FIFA World Cup. Moving forward, the scale of
projects in the pipeline means we are forecasting more positive growth in 2015 and beyond, although we
note that over the longer term, this growth is largely unsustainable.

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Vietnam Infrastructure Report Q2 2015

Vietnam Infrastructure Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Following an estimated performance of 1.8% in 2014, we forecast a modest pick-up to 4.3%
real growth for Vietnam's infrastructure industry in 2015. While we note this rate remains well below the
potential suggested by the country's strong foreign direct investment and improving business environment it
is, nevertheless, reflective of an improving macroeconomic environment.
The major developments in Vietnam's infrastructure sector are:

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Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over the
medium term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes
contributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in
new sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period.
We see relatively pedestrian output growth for Ethiopia's coffee sector, but see upside risks as we have

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Egypt Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Egypt Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: We have upwardly revised our construction industry forecast real growth for Egypt in 2015 and
2016 to reflect the expansion of the Suez Canal - we now forecast 8.2% and 7.2% real growth, respectively.
Our medium-to-longer term outlook remains positive in light of increased political stability, a strong project
pipeline, and robust demand for infrastructure.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) as well as development assistance are critical to Egypt's infrastructure

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Yemen Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Yemen Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Yemen struggles to attract significant investment interest to its construction sector due to underpowered
growth potential. An uncertain security outlook and political turbulence are also expected to
weaken growth in the medium term with real industry growth of just 1.9% in 2015 and an average of 2.1%
over the forecast period until 2023.
Key Trends And Developments
■ The government's announcement that it has allocated USD2.8bn towards infrastructure projects in its

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France Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

France Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: We forecast a decline in grains growth in 2015/16 in France, as weak wheat prices around the
planting season likely led to a decline in plantings. We forecast wheat production to grow over our forecast
period, and expect production to reach 40.0mn tonnes by 2018/19. The dairy sector will not be
fundamentally affected by the removal of the EU's production quota in early 2015, but will expand out to
2019. Cheese production will grow strongly as international exports will be in strong demand. Poultry

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France Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

France Infrastructure Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: We forecast a contraction of 0.8% in France's construction industry in 2015, making it eight
years of consecutive negative growth. This outlook is on the back of poor macroeconomic performance, an
anaemic project pipeline, and weak investor sentiment towards the market.
Key Trends And Developments
■ The outlook for France's residential sector is pretty bleak. We believe the housing market is not
particularly attractive to investors, implying that investment flows will keep growth at a low level. This is

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Canada Mining Report Q2 2015

Canada Mining Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Jan 30 2015

BMI View: Canada will remain one of the largest players in the global mining industry. Its diversified
mineral base and well-developed capital markets will enable it to remain a top source of metals and
financing, respectively. Indeed, the country will remain a top-ten global producer of zinc, lead, iron ore,
nickel, copper, gold, silver, uranium and potash over the next five years.
Canada's mining sector advantages will continue in the coming years, enabling solid, if modest, industry

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