Logistics & Shipping


Logistics and Shipping Market Research Reports Analysis and Trends

 

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Kenya Shipping Report Q4 2014

Kenya Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 29 2014

For 2014, we have a positive outlook for Kenya's ports and shipping sector based on three main factors:
reasonable economic growth in Kenya itself; a dynamic East African region (this is important because
Mombasa acts as a trade gateway for many of Kenya's neighbouring countries); and finally, continuing
signs that Mombasa port's ongoing congestion problems are easing. Granted, there are significant threats to
Mombasa's almost monopoly-like role in this part of Africa, but they exist in the long term.

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Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2014

Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 29 2014

Ukraine's port of Odessa will continue holding the top position in the country's maritime sector in terms of
container throughput and one of the top positions in terms of total tonnage in 2014 after overtaking the port
of Illichivsk in terms of boxes handled in 2010.
The operator of the container facility at the port, HPC Ukraina, the Ukrainian unit of Germany's
Hamburger Hafen Und Logistik AG (HHLA), is seeking to increase the port's role in the global container

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Japan Shipping Report Q4 2014

Japan Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 22 2014

Japan posted a 6.8% fall in GDP in Q2 2014, according to a preliminary reading by the Cabinet Office on
August 6 (RTT News). The figure, which is down from a revised 6.1% increase in Q1 2014, beats
expectations of a contraction of 7.1% for the second quarter. Japan's GDP fell 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in
the reported period, beating forecasts for a fall of 1.8%. The figure is down from a revised 1.5% gain in the
January-March period.
The Bank of Japan's policy of trying to generate inflation to spur economic growth continues to backfire,

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South Africa Shipping Report Q4 2014

South Africa Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 22 2014

Growth at South African ports is threatened by the global headwinds that are posing challenges for the
country as a whole, namely the China slowdown and the drying up of foreign inflows due to the raised
possibility that the extraordinarily loose monetary policy that has been the norm in the US is tapered off.
However, with continued investment in facilities, growth in private final consumption, and ever-expanding
coal exports, we forecast growth in both total tonnage and container volumes at South African ports in
2014.
Headline Industry Data

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Bahrain Shipping Report Q4 2014

Bahrain Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

Bahrain's main maritime facility, the Khalifa bin Salman port, is set to continue posting solid growth figures
in 2014, especially in terms of container throughput. Volumes at the facility are rising as a result of the
massive hike in demand at Saudi Arabian ports.
Our outlook for the facility is a reflection of our forecasts for the Bahraini shipping industry as a whole. The
country's domestic consumer demand outlook bodes well for its ports sector over the medium term. The

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Russia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Russia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

Two of Russia's major ports - the port of St Petersburg, Russia's main box facility, and the port of
Novorossiysk, one of the country's largest ports in terms of total throughout - are set to hold their respective
positions in Russia's maritime sector in 2014. Although we expect Russia's consumer story to remain
attractive over the next few years, bouying container throughput growth at the country's ports, economic
growth will be modest in 2014 and 2015 as the main driver of growth over the past decade - household

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Thailand Shipping Report Q4 2014

Thailand Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

With General Prayuth Chan-ocha being elected as Interim Prime Minister, the Junta has gained full control
of governance. Huge power amassed by the Junta could be left unchecked, risking a further deepening of
the political divide. Political reforms meanwhile continue to lack clarity. That said, near-term stability bodes
well for the economy, and so for freight transport volumes also.
Although some of our port throughput forecasts are unchanged from last quarter, we had already 'priced in'

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Turkey Shipping Report Q4 2014

Turkey Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

Late last year we outlined nine key themes for Emerging Europe in 2014, two thirds of which have already
played out (or are currently playing out). Of the remaining views, we believe one - Turkey's growth
slowdown - is still likely to occur by year-end, while the other two - populism in EU elections and modest
attempts at liberalisation of the Russian economy - appear wrong.
The Turkish economy has proved more resilient than we initially anticipated, with real GDP growth coming

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United States Shipping Report Q4 2014

United States Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the US shipping sector. After estimated contractions in
TEU throughput at both the port of Los Angeles and the Port of New York/New Jersey in 2013, we forecast
a return to growth in 2014 at both facilities. Our view for gradual strengthening in the US economy through
end 2014 continues to play out, driven by a tightening labour market and sustained growth in the cyclical
components of the economy, notably the residential housing sector and business investment in equipment.

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Kuwait Shipping Report Q4 2014

Kuwait Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

BMI View: What bodes well for Kuwait's container ports is our macroeconomic outlook for the country.
High oil prices in recent years have translated into increased spending by the Kuwaiti government. This
will boost growth at the Gulf state's ports, both through spending on infrastructure projects impacting on
total tonnage throughputs and consumer spending boosting imports of containerised goods. However,
delays to infrastructure projects could hamper tonnage throughput and a plateauing in oil production has

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Latvia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Latvia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

The port of Riga, which holds the top position in Latvia's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and
box throughput, is set to post growth in 2014, following the decrease in tonnage and slowdown in container
throughput over the past year.
Riga has a strong position to build on in 2014 in terms of box throughput, enhanced by robust increase in
volumes over the past four years, and in terms of tonnage throughput, which demonstrated strong growth in
the first half of the year.

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Mexico Shipping Report Q4 2014

Mexico Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

BMI remains optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming
manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. As a result,
we retain a cautious optimism towards the country's shipping sector. Nevertheless, we have revised down
our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, compared to growth of 1.1% in 2014, due to weak
private consumption growth in Q114.
Following ongoing contractions in the construction sector and a slump in manufactured goods export

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Peru Shipping Report Q4 2014

Peru Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

BMI maintains its positive outlook on Peru's shipping and port sector. While we expect real GDP growth to
level off at around 5.0% during our forecast period, below its recent trend, significant mineral wealth,
attractive investment opportunities at the sector level, and a growing consumer story underpin our view that
Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America.
There are downside risks, nevertheless, with exports to China comprising over 15.0% of total exports in

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Saudi Arabia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Saudi Arabia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

There is a mixed picture for Saudi ports in 2014, with a number of the major facilities looking likely to
endure a second consecutive year of contractions. However, throughput at Saudi ports will be supported by
local shipping companies Bahri and Vela Shipping which are in the process of completing their merger.
Considerable investment into new facilities is also continuing apace.
Headline Industry Data
■ 2014 port of Jeddah Islamic Port tonnage throughput forecast to decline for a second consecutive year, by
7.0%. Growth will average 2.9% to 2018.

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Taiwan Shipping Report Q4 2014

Taiwan Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

We are broadly maintaining our outlook for the Taiwan economy. We expect 3.1% GDP growth this year
(no change on our last quarterly report). While exports to the US and Europe are looking healthy, the
recovery there will not be enough to overcome the drag from the slowdown in China. According to HSBC/
Markit data, momentum in Taiwan's manufacturing sector is starting to ease as growth in both output and
new orders has decelerated, as has purchasing activity. It is worth remembering that Taiwan's very outwardlooking

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Estonia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Estonia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

In the ports and shipping sector, competition from the new Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga has been a
negative for Estonia's port of Tallinn. But despite uncertainty on this front Tallinn has been coping well and
diversifying its business. Tonnage at the Estonian port fell by an estimated 4.2% in 2013 and, we now
expect it to register small but positive growth in 2014. The port authorities have claimed that a policy of
diversification will eventually begin to pay off: we expect moderate growth in container activity levels in
2014.

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Greece Shipping Report Q4 2014

Greece Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

In our view the Greek economy is slowly getting better, though it remains deeply scarred after six years of
recession. We still believe 2014 will see the first year of positive growth since the crisis began. But we have
scaled down our forecast to 0.2% GDP growth (down from +0.5% in our last quarterly shipping report). The
driving factors behind this year's growth are the stabilisation of consumer spending, recovering confidence
levels, and a little bit of lift from net exports. Everything else in the Greek economy remains pretty bad.

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Indonesia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Indonesia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 8 2014

With the general elections now completed and Joko Wikodo poised to take over from President Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono, political risk factors are beginning to subside and BMI retains a broadly optimistic
outlook for the Indonesian economy. That said, we consider 2014 to be a relatively weak transition year
prior to the recovery gathering pace in 2015. First quarter growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year and we
expect some further weakening because of the government ban on raw mineral exports and lower

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India Shipping Report Q4 2014

India Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 1 2014
The primary issue in Indian shipping continues to be the state of the nation's ports. Investment in the 12 major state-run facilities has not kept up with the demand engendered by rapid economic growth experienced in India over the past decade. This is leading to repeated issues of congestion in the ports, but investment is now starting to be made.
 
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Croatia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Croatia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Sep 24 2014
We remain downbeat about the Croatian economy, continuing to predict a sixth consecutive year of recession in 2014. While the rest of the EU economies are recovering Croatia is one of only two (the other is Cyprus) expected to see negative growth. The problem is weak household spending compounded by a lack of structural reforms. Croatia needs to increase labour market flexibility, reduce government bureaucracy and improve export competitiveness, or foreign investment and exports will remain anaemic.
 
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