Logistics & Shipping


Logistics and Shipping Market Research Reports Analysis and Trends

 

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Colombia Shipping Report Q1 2015

Colombia Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI forecasts growth across the board at Colombian ports in 2015. Shipping sector growth over the
medium term will be supported by growth in private consumption on the back of rising wages and the
opening of the expanded Panama Canal, which would see more, and larger, vessels calling at the country's
ports. This possibility has piqued the interest of international container terminal operators, such as
International Container Terminal Services Inc. Throughput volumes will also be supported by the

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Egypt Shipping Report Q1 2015

Egypt Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2015 as the country continues through
its rocky transitional period towards democracy. However, the election of former field marshall Sisi to the
presidency following elections at the end of May 2014 will serve to reduce political risk and will introduce
a measure of stability not seen since the ouster of President Mubarak in 2011. His election will provide a
veneer of political legitimacy, thereby releasing US aid flows, and should help the economy get back on

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Malaysia Shipping Report Q1 2015

Malaysia Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

Activity levels at Malaysia's main ports will grow moderately in 2015, on the back of continuing economic
expansion and a good trade performance. Gross tonnage and container volume growth will pick up as both
exports and imports continue to grow, despite a slight easing of domestic consumption. Port Klang and Port
Tanjung Pelepas will also benefit from expansion projects and developments over the last two years.
Tonnage growth at both will lag slightly behind GDP, with box traffic growth leading GDP and, in the case
of Port Klang, exceeding 7%.

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Nigeria Shipping Report Q1 2015

Nigeria Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

We believe that restrictions on movement in West Africa at the time of writing, as a result of the Ebola
outbreak, will disrupt economic activity and lead to major delays and increased supply chain costs for
shippers in transporting their goods to and from the region, which will result in downside risks being
presented to our forecasts over the short term.
The restrictions on movement introduced in four West African countries - Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone and

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Oman Shipping Report Q1 2015

Oman Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

Oman continues to develop into a regional powerhouse for the shipping and transhipment of dry bulk goods
such as iron ore. To this end a new port is being constructed at Duqm and new cargo terminals at Salalah
and Sohar. The new Duqm port will also boast a new oil refinery. Further port developments include the
announcement that all cargo operations were moved from the Muscat port of Sultan Qaboos to Sohar as of
the end of 2014. All of this is aided by Oman's position on the Arabian Sea, outside the Gulf, enabling it to

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Poland Shipping Report Q1 2015

Poland Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

The country's major maritime ports will register a strong performance in 2015. GDP expansion, a
continuing trade recovery, the beneficial effects of capacity expansion, and Poland's important gateway role
will support growth. Both key ports - Gdansk and Gdynia - will see tonnage and box traffic rising in the
6-8% range.
We are optimistic about the outlook for the Polish economy in 2015, predicting that GDP growth will
accelerate to 3.1%, up from an estimated 2.8% in 2014. In fact, despite a slowdown in some of the country's

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Qatar Shipping Report Q1 2015

Qatar Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

The Qatari shipping sector continues to be dominated by the export of the country's key commodity, natural
gas, through the export terminal of Ras Laffan. Much of this is carried by national carrier Qatar Gas
Transport (Nakilat). However, the country is looking to increase its container and dry bulk shipping
presence as well, through the development of the New Doha Port, which is being developed with an eye
towards capturing some lucrative transhipment trade. Furthermore, Qatar is making its presence felt in

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Argentina Shipping Report Q1 2015

Argentina Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the Argentine port sector. The country enjoys a good
commodities mix, but it continues to struggle with external headwinds, as well as internal difficulties in the
form of rising inflation and labour unrest. Real GDP growth in Argentina will remain weak in 2015,
following a notable slowdown in the economy in 2014 due to the impacts of the country's January 23
currency devaluation. We forecast real GDP to expand by 1.7% in 2015, a downward revision from our
previous forecast of 3.1%.

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Vietnam Shipping Report Q1 2015

Vietnam Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

The growth levels at Vietnam's two major ports - Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang - are set to continue to
impress in both the short and medium term. Whereas the port of Ho Chi Minh City is anticipated to lead the
way in year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage throughput terms in 2015 (y-o-y gains of 7.62%), the port of Da Nang
is set to register the highest box throughput increase this year, hitting double digit growth (10.00%).
Vietnam's external health will improve gradually over the coming years, as we expect a gradual narrowing

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Australia Shipping Report Q1 2015

Australia Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

In 2015, we expect to see a not too dissimilar growth picture than 12 months previous across the country's
major ports. Welcome news does arrive from the fact that we have revised up our real GDP growth forecast
estimate for 2014 to 2.8% from 2.3% previously, given the stronger-than-expected growth rate seen in H1
2014, but we do expect growth to slow to 2.3% in 2015 as a weakness in external demand becomes more
pronounced. This will temper any gains made in the Australian shipping sector this year.

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Canada Shipping Report Q1 2015

Canada Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI maintains its positive outlook on the Canadian port sector for 2015. We believe volumes at the
country's ports will be driven by increased demand from the US and China for coal imports, as well as by
shippers diverting volumes away from US West Coast ports. The ports will also benefit from continued
expansion in private consumption. Several facilities have ambitious expansion plans, which will enable
them to capitalise on increasing volumes. We expect GDP growth of 2.3% for Canada in 2015.
Headline Industry Data

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China Shipping Report Q1 2015

China Shipping Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. China's economic growth in the
coming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economic
liberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growth
averaging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Private
consumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a share

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Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2014

Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 29 2014

Ukraine's port of Odessa will continue holding the top position in the country's maritime sector in terms of
container throughput and one of the top positions in terms of total tonnage in 2014 after overtaking the port
of Illichivsk in terms of boxes handled in 2010.
The operator of the container facility at the port, HPC Ukraina, the Ukrainian unit of Germany's
Hamburger Hafen Und Logistik AG (HHLA), is seeking to increase the port's role in the global container

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Kenya Shipping Report Q4 2014

Kenya Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 29 2014

For 2014, we have a positive outlook for Kenya's ports and shipping sector based on three main factors:
reasonable economic growth in Kenya itself; a dynamic East African region (this is important because
Mombasa acts as a trade gateway for many of Kenya's neighbouring countries); and finally, continuing
signs that Mombasa port's ongoing congestion problems are easing. Granted, there are significant threats to
Mombasa's almost monopoly-like role in this part of Africa, but they exist in the long term.

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Japan Shipping Report Q4 2014

Japan Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 22 2014

Japan posted a 6.8% fall in GDP in Q2 2014, according to a preliminary reading by the Cabinet Office on
August 6 (RTT News). The figure, which is down from a revised 6.1% increase in Q1 2014, beats
expectations of a contraction of 7.1% for the second quarter. Japan's GDP fell 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in
the reported period, beating forecasts for a fall of 1.8%. The figure is down from a revised 1.5% gain in the
January-March period.
The Bank of Japan's policy of trying to generate inflation to spur economic growth continues to backfire,

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South Africa Shipping Report Q4 2014

South Africa Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 22 2014

Growth at South African ports is threatened by the global headwinds that are posing challenges for the
country as a whole, namely the China slowdown and the drying up of foreign inflows due to the raised
possibility that the extraordinarily loose monetary policy that has been the norm in the US is tapered off.
However, with continued investment in facilities, growth in private final consumption, and ever-expanding
coal exports, we forecast growth in both total tonnage and container volumes at South African ports in
2014.
Headline Industry Data

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Bahrain Shipping Report Q4 2014

Bahrain Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

Bahrain's main maritime facility, the Khalifa bin Salman port, is set to continue posting solid growth figures
in 2014, especially in terms of container throughput. Volumes at the facility are rising as a result of the
massive hike in demand at Saudi Arabian ports.
Our outlook for the facility is a reflection of our forecasts for the Bahraini shipping industry as a whole. The
country's domestic consumer demand outlook bodes well for its ports sector over the medium term. The

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Russia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Russia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

Two of Russia's major ports - the port of St Petersburg, Russia's main box facility, and the port of
Novorossiysk, one of the country's largest ports in terms of total throughout - are set to hold their respective
positions in Russia's maritime sector in 2014. Although we expect Russia's consumer story to remain
attractive over the next few years, bouying container throughput growth at the country's ports, economic
growth will be modest in 2014 and 2015 as the main driver of growth over the past decade - household

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Thailand Shipping Report Q4 2014

Thailand Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

With General Prayuth Chan-ocha being elected as Interim Prime Minister, the Junta has gained full control
of governance. Huge power amassed by the Junta could be left unchecked, risking a further deepening of
the political divide. Political reforms meanwhile continue to lack clarity. That said, near-term stability bodes
well for the economy, and so for freight transport volumes also.
Although some of our port throughput forecasts are unchanged from last quarter, we had already 'priced in'

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Turkey Shipping Report Q4 2014

Turkey Shipping Report Q4 2014

Date Published: Oct 15 2014

Late last year we outlined nine key themes for Emerging Europe in 2014, two thirds of which have already
played out (or are currently playing out). Of the remaining views, we believe one - Turkey's growth
slowdown - is still likely to occur by year-end, while the other two - populism in EU elections and modest
attempts at liberalisation of the Russian economy - appear wrong.
The Turkish economy has proved more resilient than we initially anticipated, with real GDP growth coming

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