Latin America - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Forecasts

Latin America - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Forecasts

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Publication ID
PBD0514002
Publication Date
May 8, 2014
Pages
56
Regions Covered
Publisher
This report is essential reading for those needing high-level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in the Latin American and Caribbean region. It provides further information on:
  • Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
  • Facts, figures, and statistics;
  • Government policies and regulatory issues;
  • Major players (fixed, mobile and broadband);
  • Fixed-line market and infrastructure;
  • Broadband market (including ADSL, cable modem, FttH, and WiMAX);
  • Internet and VoIP;
  • Convergence and triple play solutions;
  • Broadcasting (including cable TV, satellite-based TV services, and digital terrestrial TV);
  • Mobile market (including 3G, LTE/4G, and mobile broadband);
  • Scenario forecasts for the fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets for the years 2015 and 2020. 
 

Notes on scenario forecasts 

  • The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:
  • This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur.
  • The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15%-20% around this data.
  • All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.
 

LTE networks spread across Latin America and the Caribbean

This report includes scenario-based forecasting for the fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets in the major Latin American countries. Scenario forecasting presents us with an opportunity to address the market variables and their likely impact on future growth. Essentially, our scenario forecasts provide bands between higher and lower limits within which growth is expected to occur.
 

Economic background

The 2014 economic outlook for LAC is uninspiring, with GDP forecast to grow by only 2.5%, well behind the projected world average of 3.6%. Although 2015 is expected to be a more favourable year for the region, GDP growth will still be almost one percentage point behind the global average: 3.0% as opposed to the world’s 3.9%. The region’s best performers in 2014/2015 will be Panama, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Colombia, where GDP growth is expected to top 4.5%. Panama outshines every other country in the region, with 7.2% growth forecast for 2014 and 6.9% for 2015.
 

Investment opportunities

  • The LAC region includes a number of emerging markets that offer attractive investment opportunities. Conditions vary substantially from country to country. Most governments follow pro-business, pro-growth policies, but a few are less supportive of private enterprise. The most promising telecom markets for prospective investors are mobile telephony, fixed and mobile broadband, and pay TV. Also, several countries are developing ambitious national broadband projects, which require substantial investment.
  • Brazil, LAC’s largest market, is the region’s most popular investment destination. Its telecom regulatory environment is one of the most favourable in Latin America for investors. The provision of telecom services is simply linked to acquiring an authorisation from the regulator.
 

Privatisation and competition

  • All governments in the LAC region have introduced some form of liberalisation, especially in the value-added and mobile markets. A few countries still have a monopoly in the local fixed-line telephony sector, notably Guyana, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
  • In the broadband sector, most incumbents have secured a virtual monopoly in the delivery of ADSL access. The only competition is across technologies, from cable modem and mobile broadband. Local Loop Unbundling is rare in this region, and wholesale activity not very well developed. The concern governments face is the shortage of fixed line infrastructure, tied to the fear that operators will cease to invest in their network if they are forced to unbundle their local loop or lower wholesale prices.
  • The most competitive telecom sector is the mobile one, with most countries having at least two or three providers contending for market share.
  • Fixed-line marketDespite a low 18% teledensity (in most Western European countries teledensity ranges between 40% and 60%), fixed-lines in service have grown little since 2001, with consumers favouring mobile devices over traditional phones. New entrants using VoIP, wireless technologies, or triple play solutions are attracting a growing number of subscribers, but their market share remains comparatively small. Almost invariably, the incumbents continue to dominate the fixed line industry.
 

Fixed broadband market

Estimated fixed broadband penetration in LAC was 9.2% per capita at end-2013, slightly below the world average of 9.8% but ahead of other developing regions.
 
Hurdles in the Latin American broadband market include:
  • weak competition and insufficient bandwidth (hence, expensive and/or slow services);
  • inadequate fixed-line infrastructure (hence, service unavailability in many areas);
  • low PC penetration, poverty, and unequal income distribution (hence, limited demand).
 
ADSL is the favoured technology in most countries, but low teledensity limits its availability. Cable modem access has been gaining popularity thanks to triple play solutions comprising voice, internet, and video over HFC cables. The largest proportion of cable modem subscribers can be found in Chile, where this technology accounts for about half of the broadband market.
 
Fibre-to-the-Premise (FttP) is becoming more widely available throughout the region, but subscription fees are extremely high; therefore, the service still only attracts high-income residential customers and small businesses that require fast connections. The future of FttP is particularly promising in Brazil and Uruguay, the first because of preparations for the 2016 Olympics, the second because the government has started to deploy a nationwide FttP network through state-owned Antel.
 

Mobile market

Like the rest of the world, LAC is turning increasingly towards mobile solutions and away from the traditional telephone. In fact, the region is well ahead of the world average, having reached an estimated 115% mobile penetration at end-2013 against a global rate of around 96%. However, about 80% of LAC’s mobile subscribers are on prepaid plans.
 

3G/3.5G UMTS mobile networks (HSPA/HSPA+)

  • UMTS technologies in Latin America include High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) and Evolved High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA+), respectively dubbed 3G and 3.5G.
  • Practically all LAC markets have operating HSPA networks with the exception of Cuba and a few Caribbean island nations. The region has 103 HSPA networks operating in 42 countries, plus there are another 9 networks planned.
  • LAC’s first HSPA+ networks were launched in 2010 by Movistar in Chile (at 42Mb/s) and by Digicel in Bermuda (at 21Mb/s). Since then, 76 HSPA+ networks have been deployed in 37 countries.
 

4G mobile networks (LTE)

LTE networks, dubbed 4G, have been spreading across LAC at an impressive rate. The first LAC country to see LTE was Puerto Rico, where three companies launched services in November 2011. Since then, more and more operators have entered the LTE market. Altogether, 38 networks have been deployed in 18 countries, and another 42 operators are planning LTE launches. The region has passed the two-million-subscriber milestone. About three quarters of LAC’s LTE subscribers are in Brazil, where concerted endeavours are being made to prepare the country technologically before it hosts the 2014 FIFA cup and the 2016 Olympic Games.
 

Digital media

Seven Latin American countries are among the world’s top thirty for Facebook users. Brazil has the highest number of active users in the region, while Chile has the highest ratio of users per capita. With penetration reaching 60%, more than one out of every two Chileans is, in fact, an active Facebook user.
 

Smartphones

  • The popularity of social networks is driving sales in a booming smartphone market. Social phones, which bridge the gap between traditional phones and smartphones, are extremely popular in LAC, as they allow access to mail, Twitter, and Facebook.
  • Smartphone penetration across the region is escalating; it was an estimated 20% at end-2013, and it is forecast to reach 44% by 2017. Thanks to the increasing availability of lower cost models, smartphones are becoming more accessible to middle and lower income groups.
  • Besides being able to reach more people in a region with poor fixed line coverage, smartphones have another significant advantage when trying to reduce a country’s digital gap: they use a simpler technology compared to the standard computer interface. Many people can handle a mobile phone but cannot operate a computer. Therefore, the growing penetration of smartphones could be a way of including digitally illiterate individuals into the Information Society. This would in turn drive growth in the mobile broadband market and help shore up the revenues of telecom operators.
 

Market Highlights

  • Guyana hopes to pass a bill by mid-2014 opening its telecom market to competition.
  • Virgin Mobile has signed an MVNO agreement with Telefónica to use the Vivo network in Brazil and the Movistar network in Mexico, and is preparing to launch MVNO services in both countries; it already operates in Chile and Colombia.
  • Costa Rica and Trinidad & Tobago launched Mobile Number Portability (MNP) in 2013, later than most of the other major LAC countries. Honduras and Jamaica are hoping to launch MNP in 2014. Following the successful implementation of MNP, Peru intends to also launch fixed-line number portability in 2014.
  • Argentina has become an important manufacturer of cell phones and provides about 80% of all devices sold in the country. Driven by Twitter and Facebook, the combined penetration of smart phones and social phones has overtaken traditional devices in Argentina.
  • With an investment of US$600 million, Colombia’s National Fibre Optic Project aims to deploy over 15,000km of fibre cable.
  • Perus national broadband plan aims to provide internet connectivity via a fibre-optic backbone to the more remote regions; it could boost broadband penetration from 4% in 2011 to 9% in 2016.
  • Several submarine fibre optic networks are expected to become ready for service later in 2014, including ACSea, the Pacific Caribbean Cable System (PCCS), and Seabras-1.
  • Five satellites are scheduled for launch in the second half of 2014: Brazil’s Star One C4 and Star One C5, and Mexico’s SatMex 7, MexSat 1 (MexSat Centenario), and MexSat 2.
  • Uruguay’s Antel’s has rolled out an FttP network covering more than 720,000 households, of which around 275,000 were connected in March 2014. The operator expects to cover all towns with over 3,500 inhabitants by 2015.
  • In Argentina, Grupo Clarin’s asset divestment plan has been approved by AFSCA in February 2014. By breaking up its operations into six distinct companies, Grupo Clarin will avoid a forced dismantling under the terms of the new media ownership law.
  • Brazil’s regulator plans to auction spectrum in the 700MHz band suitable for LTE services.
  • Telecom Italia has agreed to sell its 22.7% holding in Telecom Argentina to the investment firm Fintech Group. The sale was part of Telecom Italia’s general strategy to raise €4 billion in a bid to revive its business and avoid a credit downgrade.
 
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.
 
Researchers:- Lucia Bibolini, Henry Lancaster
March 2014 (12th Edition)

1. National Comparisons 

1.1 National GDP and population data 
1.2 Fixed-Line, Internet and Broadband 
1.3 Mobile subscribers 

2. Argentina 

2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
2.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth 
2.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth 
2.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
2.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
2.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
2.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
2.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
2.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

3. Bolivia 

3.1 Forecasts – mobile market 
3.2 Forecasts – broadband market 

4. Brazil 

4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
4.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth 
4.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth 
4.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
4.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
4.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
4.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
4.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
4.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

5. Chile 

5.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
5.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth 
5.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth 
5.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
5.2.1 Overview 
5.2.2 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
5.2.3 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
5.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
5.3.1 Overview 
5.3.2 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
5.3.3 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

6. Colombia 

6.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
6.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth 
6.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth 
6.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
6.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
6.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
6.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
6.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
6.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

7. Dominican Republic 

7.1 Forecast – mobile subscribers 2015; 2016 

8. Ecuador 

8.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
8.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth 
8.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth 
8.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
8.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
8.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
8.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
8.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
8.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

9. Jamaica 

9.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers 2015 - 2018 
9.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers 2015 - 2018 

10. Mexico 

10.1 Forecasts – mobile market 2016 
10.2 Forecasts – broadband 2016;2020 

11. Panama 

11.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2016 
11.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth 
11.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth 
11.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2016 
11.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
11.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
11.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2016 
11.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
11.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

12. Paraguay 

12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
12.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth 
12.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth 
12.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
12.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
12.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
12.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
12.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
12.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

13. Peru 

13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
13.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth 
13.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth 
13.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
13.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
13.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
13.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
13.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
13.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

14. Puerto Rico 

14.1 Forecasts – Mobile subscribers 2015;2020 

15. Uruguay 

15.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
15.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth 
15.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth 
15.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
15.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
15.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
15.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
15.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
15.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 

16. Venezuela 

16.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020 
16.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth 
16.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth 
16.2 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020 
16.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth 
16.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth 
16.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020 
16.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth 
16.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth 
 

List of Table

Table 1 – LAC – national GDP and population data (estimates) – 2014
Table 2 – LAC countries – fixed lines, broadband, internet – subscribers & penetration 2013 (e)
Table 3 – LAC region – mobile subscribers and penetration - 1998 - 2014
Table 4 – LAC – mobile subscribers and penetration by country - 2012 - 2014
Table 5 – Argentina – Forecast fixed lines – higher growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 6 – Argentina – Forecast fixed lines – lower growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 7 – Argentina – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 8 – Argentina – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 9 – Argentina – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 10 – Argentina – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 11 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2012 – 2013; 2015; 2017
Table 12 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2012 – 2013; 2015; 2017
Table 13 – Brazil – Forecast fixed lines – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 14 – Brazil – Forecast fixed lines – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 15 – Brazil – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 16 – Brazil – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 17 – Brazil – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 18 – Brazil – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 19 – Chile – Forecast fixed lines – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 20 – Chile – Forecast fixed lines – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 21 – Chile – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 22 – Chile – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 23 – Chile – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 24 – Chile – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 25 – Colombia – Forecast fixed lines – higher growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 26 – Colombia – Forecast fixed lines – lower growth scenario –2015; 2020
Table 27 – Colombia – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 28 – Colombia – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 29 – Colombia – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 30 – Colombia – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 31 – Dominican Republic – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
Table 32 – Dominican Republic – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher market scenario – 2011 - 2016
Table 33 – Ecuador – Forecast fixed-line growth – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 34 – Ecuador – Forecast fixed-line growth – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 35 – Ecuador – Forecast mobile subscriber growth – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 36 – Ecuador – Forecast mobile subscriber growth – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 37 – Ecuador – Forecast broadband growth – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 38 – Ecuador – Forecast broadband growth – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 39 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – 2011 - 2018
Table 40 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 2011 - 2018
Table 41 – Mexico – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2012; 2016
Table 42 – Mexico – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher growth scenario – 2011 - 2012; 2016
Table 43 – Mexico – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate – lower growth scenario – 2011 – 2016; 2020
Table 44 – Mexico – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – higher growth scenario – 2011 – 2016; 2020
Table 45 – Panama – Forecast fixed-line growth – higher growth scenario – 2011; 2016
Table 46 – Panama – Forecast fixed-line growth – lower growth scenario – 2011; 2016
Table 47 – Panama – Forecast mobile subscriber growth – higher growth scenario – 2011; 2016
Table 48 – Panama – Forecast mobile subscriber growth – lower growth scenario – 2011; 2016
Table 49 – Panama – Forecast broadband growth – higher growth scenario – 2011; 2016
Table 50 – Panama – Forecast broadband growth – lower growth scenario – 2011; 2016
Table 51 – Paraguay – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 52 – Paraguay – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 53 – Paraguay – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 54 – Paraguay – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 55 – Paraguay – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 56 – Paraguay – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 57 – Peru – Forecast fixed line growth – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 58 – Peru – Forecast fixed line growth – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 59 – Peru – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 60 – Peru – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 61 – Peru – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 62 – Peru – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 63 – Puerto Rico – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2011 – 2015; 2020
Table 64 – Puerto Rico – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2011 – 2015; 2020
Table 65 – Uruguay – Forecast fixed line subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 66 – Uruguay – Forecast fixed line subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 67 – Uruguay – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 68 – Uruguay – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 69 – Uruguay – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 70 – Uruguay – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 71 – Venezuela – Forecast fixed lines – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 72 – Venezuela – Forecast fixed lines – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 73 – Venezuela – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 74 – Venezuela – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 75 – Venezuela – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
Table 76 – Venezuela – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
 
Chart 1 – LAC region – mobile subscribers – market evolution at a glance – 2005 – 2014
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