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Germany Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Germany Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
We have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for Germany
for 2015-16, with a decline in oil prices, European Central Bank
(ECB) quantitative easing, and a weaker euro all likely to support
economic activity. Nonetheless, we remain below-consensus on
German growth over the longer run.
We believe Germany's current account surplus has peaked, but narrowing
of the surplus over the next five years will be limited by tight
fiscal policy, which will in turn hamper the regional economic recovery.

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Poland Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Poland Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Poland's economic recovery is now in full swing as domestic demand
gathers momentum. We have upgraded our growth forecasts on
the back of stronger exports, as the weak euro and low oil prices
stimulate demand across the German supply chain.
Poland's external position remains relatively strong, and we estimate
the current account deficit arrived at just 1.3% of GDP in 2014. A
large stock of foreign-owned government paper and ongoing private
sector deleveraging represent the two major risks to our sanguine

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Australia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Australia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Real GDP growth is highly likely to slow over the coming years
owing to a number of factors: slowing growth in the working age
population; an increasing share of government spending relative to
GDP; and a reversal in the country's terms of trade; and the growing
risk of deflation. These impediments will result in real GDP growth
averaging 2.3% over the next decade, down from 2.9% over the
past decade.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott's leadership is looking increasingly

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Vietnam Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Vietnam Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)'s 12th National Congress,
which will convene in January 2016, will maintain current pro-growth
economic policies, but eschew political liberalisation. One of the CPV's
biggest challenges will be cracking down on corruption. Meanwhile,
the emergence of a new generation of CPV officials could lead to rifts
with the old guard over the pace of reform, leading to policy confusion.
W e expect continued strong foreign direct investment (FDI), healthy

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Ghana Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Ghana Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
E conomic growth in Ghana will be buoyant over 2015-2018 thanks
to rising oil production and strong investment inflows – the latter
encouraged by IMF policy oversight.
Foreign investment inflows will be robust thanks to Ghana's abundant
natural resources and relative political stability.
The current account deficit and fiscal deficit will remain key structural
weaknesses in the economy.
Peaceful protests against power shortages and economic hardship
will take place in 2015. Ghanaians are wary of the conditions that

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Russia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Russia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
President Vladimir Putin's popularity remains near record highs. We
expect this to suffer moderate declines as the reality of economic
hardship beings to be realised by the general public. Political influence
will remain in favour of defence and security hardliners. This
will have fiscal consequences as military spending continues to
remain high.
Prolonged lower oil prices during 2015 will have a negative impact
on economic activity. High inflation will negatively affect consumer's

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Bahrain Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Bahrain Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Development funds from the GCC and visitor flows from Saudi Arabia
will support Bahraini economic activity over 2015. Nevertheless,
the slide in oil prices will weigh down on consumer and business
confidence, and prompt a moderation in the government’s spending
plans. We forecast real economic growth to slow to 3.4% this year,
from 5.3% in 2013.
Bahrain’s reputation as a stable and welcoming location to do
business in the Gulf has suffered as a result of the volatile political

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Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
The succession process in Zimbabwe has become somewhat clearer.
The removal of Vice-President Joice Mujuru at ZANU-PF’s five-year
congress in early December 2014 seemingly clears the path for her
main rival Emmerson Mnangagwa to take the helm once Mugabe
eventually departs the scene. Even so, there remains little uncertainty
over the issue, not least given that all the power now lies within the
president’s hands.
Political and policy uncertainty will continue to deter much-needed

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Iraq Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Iraq Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Risks of a return to full-blown civil war are elevated following the
takeover of jihadist group Islamic state (IS) of the country's north
and west.
Robust headline growth of the Iraqi economy in 2015 will result from
accelerating oil exports. Conversely, domestic expansion will be
sluggish and uneven; consumer spending and capital formation will
be hit hard by political instability, and declining oil prices will hinder
the government's ability to prop up spending.
Major Forecast Changes

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Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Salman bin Abdulaziz has become Saudi Arabia's new ruler, following
the death of King Abdullah in January 2015. While the rapid nominations
of a new heir and deputy crown prince resolve the question of
succession for now, the risk of divisions between members of the
royal family remains prominent. We expect policy continuity, but see
Yemen as a potential flare point.
A wide-ranging cabinet reshuffle by King Salman has consolidated
his authority at the expense of the sons of the previous ruler. Salman

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Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
We believe that most of the English-speaking Caribbean will continue
to see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters as the
US growth story begins to gain ground. That said, even with a modest
acceleration in growth, those countries most reliant on tourism
and financial services will continue to struggle, as we expect these
industries are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels in the foreseeable
future. Indeed, while we expect that lower precious metals prices will

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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
We believe the deteriorating domestic demand outlook for Central
Asia will make the region more susceptible to Islamist radicalisation.
Out of the five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, we believe the latter two to
be most exposed to the threat of radicalisation.
We expect the Kyrgyz som to remain on a more gradual depreciatory
trajectory in 2015 than its Tajik counterpart. The Kyrgyzstani
economy faces more limited depreciatory pressure from falling

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Singapore Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Singapore Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Singapore's ongoing restructuring drive continues, with the ruling
People's Action Party (PAP) pushing ahead with stricter foreign
labour rules despite an increasingly tight labour market. While we
believe that the tight labour market is acting as a headwind against
economic growth, we do not foresee any easing from the government
in the near future, particularly ahead of general elections set
to be called before January 2017.
Following a deceleration in real GDP growth to 2.5% in 2014, we

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Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Partisan maneovring, ethnic divisions, and complex governing
structures combine to make Bosnia-Herzegovina’s political system
largely dysfunctional. With few signs that radical improvements are
forthcoming in even after last year’s elections, we expect the country
to muddle through in the coming years, with frustrating delays to
badly-needed reforms.
The economy has shown considerable resistance to the catastrophic
floods that hit the country in summer 2014, with the downturn in

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Kosovo and Montenegro Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Kosovo and Montenegro Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Despite mounting domestic and foreign policy challenges, we expect
Kosovo’s grand coalition to overcome disagreements and hold together
for the duration of its term ending in 2018. Integration within
Western political and economic organisations will remain a common
goal for the two coalition partners, underpinning their willingness to
cooperate.
We remain sceptical that Kosovo’s new coalition government’s plans
to reorientate the economy from a consumption-driven model towards

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Spain Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Spain Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Spain’s economic recovery will remain steady in 2015 and 2016,
with real GDP growth set to outperform the eurozone average.
However, growth rates will struggle to match pre-crisis levels due
a lack of sustainable growth drivers. An over-reliance on private
consumption for growth is a threat, given underlying labour market
vulnerabilities.
The era of export driven growth is over in Spain as improving domestic
demand boosts imports and exports struggle amid tepid demand
from Spain’s main eurozone trading partners.

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Bulgaria Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Bulgaria Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Bulgaria's debt and deficit will continue to increase over the coming
years, having grown considerably in 2014 due to a bank bailout
and weak revenue growth. Nevertheless, the country will remain
on a sustainable fiscal trajectory due in part to its exceptionally
low public load.
Bulgaria's economic recovery will be weak in 2015 as domestic demand
remains elusive. Deflation and political uncertainty compound
already weak confidence levels among businesses and mean that

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Latvia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Latvia Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Latvia's economic recovery will continue into 2015 and beyond,
although we emphasise that strong headline real GDP growth is
largely a result of statistical base effects. We see growing scope for
the government to ease up on its long-held policy of fiscal austerity
going forward.
The Russian embargo on EU agricultural goods has weakened the
growth outlook and Latvia will be among the worst EU states affected.
Growth will remain subdued due to the need for further deleveraging.
Major Forecast Changes

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Sri Lanka Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Sri Lanka Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Maithripala Sirisena’s victory in Sri Lanka’s seventh presidential
election held on January 8 2015, which ended Mahinda Rajapaksa’s
reign dating back to November 2005,signals a major change in the
country’s political reform. On the international front, this paves the
way for a rapprochement with the West, improving relations with
India and marginally reducing reliance on China over the coming
years.
Sri Lanka’s economy will continue powering ahead over the coming

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Cameroon Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Date Published: Feb 24 2015

Core Views
Cameroon's real GDP growth will slow in 2015, largely due to the
effects that weak oil prices will have on the economy. Private consumption
will remain the key driver of economic expansion.
Cameroon's budget deficit will widen in 2015 as oil revenues plummet.
Nevertheless, the government's capital investment expenditure
will be maintained thanks to revised debt issuance plans.
The Banque des États de l'Afrique Centrale will cut its key policy
rate by 45 basis points in 2015 as it seeks to stimulate economic

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