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Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
Serbia's economic rebound will remain on track in 2016, but growth
will remain tepid, as fiscal consolidation measures and structural
reforms will prevent a stronger recovery in domestic demand.
The opening of accession negotiations between Serbia and the EU
at end-2015 offers little cause for optimism that the country will join
the union any time soon. We see limited possibility that Serbia fulfils
the EU's main condition for EU membership – normalising relations

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Kenya Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Kenya Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
Economic conditions in Kenya are set to improve on the whole over
the next 12 months, with real GDP growth quickening slightly in 2016
to 6.1% from an estimated 5.6% in 2015.
The politicisation of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threat
to Kenya's long-term political stability. Terrorism linked to Kenya's
military involvement in Somalia is likely to remain a risk, but it does
not pose a systemic threat to political stability.
Despite a tense security situation, we believe that a booming consumer

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Cameroon Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views

  • Cameroon’s economy will see a year of strong GDP growth in 2016, as robust levels of investment, government spending, and low inflation all contribute to a higher production incentive for many of the country’s producers. Low levels of domestic savings will lead to a slight deceleration in economic growth 2017, but a stable currency will ensure GDP growth remains strong over our long-term outlook.
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Finland Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Finland Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views

  • Finland’s economy is facing a number of cyclical and structural headwinds that are dragging on growth. Without structural reform, poor competitiveness will ensure that growth remains weak.
  • The new government has put forward a much needed economic reform package, but it remains to be seen whether it can be successfully implemented.
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Slovakia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Slovakia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
A fragmented opposition, strong economy, increased social spending
and perceived security threats stemming from the EU migrant crisis
have all boosted the electoral chances of the governing Smer-SD
party, which stands a good chance of retaining its absolute parliamentary
majority following the March 2016 general election.
Although the government will have to maintain a relatively tight fiscal
stance in light of looming constitutional debt brakes, we believe

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Kuwait Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Kuwait Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
We expect the Kuwaiti economy to see modest growth over 2016 and
2017, forecasting real GDP growth of 1.2% and 1.9% respectively.
After a long period of stagnation, the Kuwaiti investment outlook appears
to be improving, while the prospects for consumption remain
bright. However, we again highlight Kuwait's ever-volatile political
situation as the key downside risk to economic activity.
Kuwait has seen a flurry of populist legislation recently, including

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Canada Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Canada Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views

  • Canada's proposed tax changes and previous emphasis on public infrastructure investment during the Liberal Party's election campaign will derail efforts to balance the federal budget by 2019 and see the ruling party's self-imposed CAD10bn deficit cap breached.
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France Country Risk Report Q2 2016

France Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views

  • French economic growth will lag the rest of the eurozone over the next two years as investment growth and external demand remain lacklustre. Meanwhile, meagre wage growth and high unemployment mean that household consumption – traditionally the key driver of the economy – will become less able to support growth.
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South Africa Country Risk Report Q2 2016

South Africa Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
We maintain our 2016 real GDP growth forecast at 1.5%. The absence
of load shedding at least until May 2016 justifies a minor increase
from 1.4% in 2015, but strikes are likely to pick up in 2016. The
deterioration in the business environment at end-2015 will extend
into 2016, depressing investment growth, while private consumption
remains limited by high unemployment and rate hikes.
Given the rand has continued to weaken despite the return of Finance
Minister Gordhan and food price pressures show no sign of

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Lithuania Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Lithuania Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
GDP growth will accelerate in Lithuania over the next two years
thanks to improving trade conditions in the region and strong levels
of investment. The increase will be sustained over our longer-term
outlook by growing domestic savings from which future investment
can be drawn, as increasing inflation dampens levels of consumption.
Lithuania will record a slightly larger budget deficit over our shortterm
outlook, on the back of an increase in expenditure and stagnant

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Caucasus Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Caucasus Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views

  • Political tensions in the South Caucasus will remain high over the coming years as increased Russian intervention in Georgia’s breakaway territories fuels concerns that Russia will attempt to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani-Armenian relations will remain strained over the frozen conflict surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.
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Grenada Country Risk Report  2015

Grenada Country Risk Report 2015

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views

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Timor-Leste Country Risk Report  2015

Timor-Leste Country Risk Report 2015

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
There are numerous domestic issues in Timor-Leste that have yet to
be addressed, such as the high levels of poverty and unemployment,
which could be a major source of social unrest. While Rui Maria de
Araújo has replaced Xanana Gusmão as prime minister, we do not
expect this to have a major destabilising effect on domestic politics.
Indeed, Gusmão remains in the government as minister of planning
and strategic investment.
Timor-Leste remains on course to record strong real GDP growth

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Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
Malaysia's Q315 real GDP grew by 4.7% y-o-y, reflecting the
economy's slowest growth rate in nine quarters. We maintain our
forecasts for 2015 and 2016 real GDP growth to come in at 4.7%
and 4.5% respectively, as we expect both the domestic and external
sectors to face continued headwinds over the coming quarters.
Although most of the measures raised in Malaysia proposed 2016
budget are largely aimed at tackling short-term problems, the country
has retained its commitment to fiscal consolidation, informing our

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Chile Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Chile Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views

  • Chilean real GDP growth will remain modest in 2016. An improving net exports position, combined with the government's fiscal stimulus and tailwinds from lower oil prices will support stronger economic activity, although headline growth will remain below the historical trend.
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Hong Kong Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Hong Kong Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
Hong Kong's economy narrowly beat consensus expectations in Q315,
despite myriad domestic and external drags on growth. However, the
2.3% print confirms our expectations for the city-state's economic
expansion to cool in line with a stumbling mainland economy, and
corroborates our full-year real GDP growth forecast of 2.5% for 2015.
Tepid external conditions and the rising propensity for a domestic
property price correction will continue to weigh on the economy in

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United Kingdom Country Risk Report Q2 2016

United Kingdom Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
The UK economy outperformed most major developed states in
2015, and will continue to surpass the eurozone in 2016 and 2017.
In light of positive structural economic reforms undertaken by the
government, coupled with flexible monetary and exchange rate
policies, we remain bullish on the long-term economic prospects
for the UK relative to the eurozone over the longer term.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised up our 2015 estimate for the UK's current account

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Mexico Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Mexico Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on
the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong
private consumer and favourable demographics.
The passage of energy sector reform will bolster sentiment towards
Mexican assets and contribute to stronger real GDP growth in the
coming years.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our 2016 real GDP growth estimate from
3.1% to 2.8% as weak oil exports weigh on trade dynamics and

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Colombia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Colombia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views

  • Persistent weakness in benchmark crude oil prices will continue to undermine real export growth and fixed investment, helping to underpin our view for structurally slower growth over the next several years.
  • We also anticipate a slowdown in real private consumption growth as consumers are hit hard by high inflation, rising interest rates and a significant sell-off in the exchange rate.
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Hungary Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Hungary Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Date Published: Jan 23 2016

Core Views
Having been propped up by fiscal stimulus and EU transfers, real
GDP growth in Hungary will remain at relatively subdued levels
in the coming quarters as government spending is scaled back.
Hungary's domestic demand recovery will continue, but trail that of
Central European peers due in part to a crippled banking sector.
However, we see steady economic growth ahead, driven by accelerating
external demand, improving terms of trade and a better
outlook for private consumption.

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