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Development of China’s Preschool Education Industry in 2014

Development of China’s Preschool Education Industry in 2014

Date Published: Jul 29 2015

1.INTRODUCTION

 
In recent years, Chinese government has issued series of education laws and regulations to promote educational reform and development. With the supporting of education reform policy and strong market demand, China’s education industry has entered a fast development period, especially preschool education. 
 
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Iran Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Iran Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
Iran's agreement with the P5+1 countries over the former's nuclear
programme will result in a gradual unwinding of sanctions on Iran.
Declining oil prices will force the government to cut current spending
and investment in the country's infrastructure sector in 2015,
which will result in slow expansion of private consumption and fixed
investment.
Downside pressure on the Iranian rial will remain prominent, and the
unit will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiations
over the coming quarters.

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Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
While the Philippines' real GDP growth slowed to 5.2% y-o-y in
Q115 from 6.6% in Q414, owing largely to export weakness, we
nevertheless expect strong domestic demand to provide a measure
of support for the economy. As such, we maintain our forecast for
the country's real GDP growth to come in at a strong 6.0% in 2015.
That said, a larger-than-anticipated slowdown in exports would pose
a downside risk to our forecast.
The Philippines' ongoing growth-inflation sweet spot informs our

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Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
In terms of real GDP growth, Côte d'Ivoire is our pick of Sub-Saharan
Africa. We forecast an expansion of 9.1% in 2015, followed by a
further 9.0% in 2016, as effective management, business reforms,
and increased stability encourage strong investment inflows. Our
forecast is a moderate downgrade since our last quarterly report,
when we projected growth of 9.4% – the figure the Ivorian authorities
are currently predicting, according to an IMF report published

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Ireland Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Ireland Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
I reland’s economy will remain the fastest growing in the eurozone
in 2015.
Systemic risks to Ireland’s economy have been reduced by progress
cutting the budget deficit, exiting the country’s sovereign bailout and
attempts to cool the housing market.
Although private consumption will be the main driver of real GDP
growth in 2015 and 2016, we expect growth to be increasingly
broad-based based over the coming quarters.
Support for the ruling Fine Gael/Labour coalition will be boosted

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Senegal & Gambia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Senegal & Gambia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
Real GDP growth will be 5.0% in 2015 and 5.1% in 2016, and will
remain at a similar level over the coming years.
Senegal's current account deficit will widen from 9.1% of GDP in
2014 to 9.5% in 2015 as capital goods imports are ramped up.
The country will remain a bastion of West African stability and will
continue to develop its democratic institutions.
Inflationary pressures will be benign, in part thanks to the XOF
Franc's peg to the euro.
Core Views

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Croatia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Croatia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
Croatia will remain amongst the worst performing economies in the
EU in 2015 and 2016.
Competitiveness issues are at the root of Croatia's problems, due
to high labour costs, an inflexible labour market and a cumbersome
bureaucracy.
A lack of appetite for reform, which has blighted successive administrations,
suggests progress implementing badly needed structural
reforms will be sluggish at best.
The ruling Kukuriku coalition faces a struggle to remain in power

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Japan Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Japan Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views

  • Rising geopolitical tensions over territorial disputes in the South and East China seas are raising the risk of a military clash between China on one side and the US, Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines on the other. This could quickly escalate into a major global crisis.
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Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
The Serbian economy will see tepid growth in 2015-2016, as households
bear the burden of the government's austerity push. External
demand will offset to a degree the contraction in domestic demand,
underpinning our forecast for real GDP to return to stronger growth
in 2016 from a contraction in 2014, and growth of just 0.3% in 2015.
The social stability outlook for Serbia remains grim due to a heightened
risk of public opposition to the government's austerity measures.

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Cyprus Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Cyprus Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
Cyprus is past the worst of its brutal recession. However, the economy
will continue to be challenged by a weak external environment, public
sector austerity, competitive pressures on wages and disposable
incomes and the deleveraging of the banking sector.
Negotiations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots on the 40-year-old
'Cyprus problem' are reaching a crucial phase. The odds of a deal
to reunify the island are higher now than they have been since the
last major peace effort ended in 2004, though the next few months

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Kenya Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Kenya Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
The April 2 attack by al-Shabaab on Garissa University in northeastern
Kenya highlights the country’s perilous security outlook,
which is unlikely to improve over the coming months.
The politicisation of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threat
to Kenya’s long-term political stability. Terrorism linked to Kenya’s
military involvement in Somalia is likely to remain a risk, but it does
not pose a systemic threat to political stability.
Despite a tense security situation, we believe that a booming consumer

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Belgium Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Belgium Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views

  • Belgium's economic recovery is beginning to gain momentum. Growth in 2015 will be stronger than the previous year though still lagging behind the broader eurozone. This will eventually converge with broad eurozone growth around 2017.
  • Economic growth will be constrained by the continuation of austerity measures by the incumbent government. Significant fiscal cutbacks will dampen the contribution from government consumption during 2015-2016.
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Slovakia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Slovakia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
Prime Minister Robert Fico's failed bid for the presidency in March
2014 is a sign of growing voter wariness of single-party rule and
mainstream political parties, while recent corruption scandals have
reinforced this trend. General elections in 2016 are unlikely to give
the ruling centre-left Smer party another outright parliamentary
majority, but the fragmented nature of the opposition suggests it
will remain the dominant political force for some time.
A lthough the government will have to maintain a relatively tight

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Estonia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Estonia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
Exposure to its ailing neighbours will curtail Estonia's growth during
the forecast period as exports are impeded. Domestic demand will
remain a driver of growth as strong real wages and unemployment
dynamics bolster consumer spending.
The external dynamics affecting Estonia's neighbours will have a
visible impact on the country's balance of payments in 2015-2016.
We expect the current account to post a manageable deficit during
both periods. Given its favourable business environment, Estonia

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Kuwait Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Kuwait Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
We expect the Kuwaiti economy to perform relatively well over 2015
and 2016. We have retained our forecast for real GDP growth of
2.6% and 2.4%, respectively, from an estimated 2.7% in 2014. After
a long period of stagnation, the Kuwaiti investment outlook appears
to be improving, while the prospects for consumption remain bright.
However, we again highlight Kuwait's ever-volatile political situation
as the key downside risk to economic activity.
Kuwait has seen a flurry of populist legislation recently, including

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Botswana Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Botswana Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views

  • Economic growth in Botswana will remain relatively healthy over the coming years, averaging around 4.6% annually. Even so, growth will continue to be dominated by the mining sector, as economic diversification efforts continue to bear little fruit.
  • Lower fuel and food prices and continued slack within the economy will allow the Bank of Botswana to keep monetary policy accommodative through the remainder of 2015.
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South Africa Country Risk Report Q4 2015

South Africa Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
South Africa’s electricity crisis reflects structural political and economic
challenges that will not be addressed under the current administration.
We are revising down our near-term growth forecasts, as rolling
blackouts will mitigate the positive growth impact of lower oil prices,
while limited labour and product market reform will cap the longerterm
growth rate below the 3% mark.
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress party will gradually
adopt more populist, leftwing policies over the next four years in an

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Finland Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Finland Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
Finland’s economy is facing a number of cyclical and structural
headwinds that are dragging on growth. Without structural reform,
poor competitiveness will ensure that growth remains weak.
The new government has put forward a much-needed economic
reform package, but it remains to be seen whether it can be successfully
implemented.
Over a longer time horizon, looming structural challenges
pose a threat to public debt dynamics and may impede fiscal
lexibility. Several key sectors, including forestry and papermaking,

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Lithuania Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Lithuania Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views
W e have revised down our real GDP growth outlook for Lithuania in
2015 and 2016, as the impact of Russia's economic crisis has been
more pronounced than we anticipated. While weak external demand
will not leave domestic demand unscathed, private consumption will
remain the main driver of growth in the coming quarters.
Subdued export growth weighed on Lithuania's external accounts
in 2014 and will continue to do so in 2015, reflected in the current
account surplus remaining in deficit in 2015. For 2016, we forecast

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Brazil Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Brazil Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Jul 23 2015

Core Views

  • Brazil is in the midst of an economic policy shift. A new economic team will begin reversing the fiscal deterioration seen in the last few years and the central bank is more strongly committed to reining in inflation. That said, these shifts will be slow to translate into stronger real GDP growth given a number of domestic and external headwinds.
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