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Hungary Real Estate Report 2015

Hungary Real Estate Report 2015

Date Published: Aug 26 2015

BMI View: Following on from a year of rapid growth, the Hungarian economy is expected to continue
growing, albeit at a slower rate due to the inability to maintain economic measures which kick started the
growth last year. The real estate sector is set to benefit from the stability in the country, with strong
political and bureaucratic outlook attracting investors, particularly in the industrial and infrastructure
sectors. Rental rates and yields are expected to remain stable over the short term; however with the more

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Mexico Real Estate Report 2015

Mexico Real Estate Report 2015

Date Published: Aug 26 2015

BMI View: Mexico's strengthening economy has created an attractive business environment which will in
turn generate growth within the commercial real estate market. The current transition towards a more
service-based economy is creating opportunities for retail developers across the country while the robust
manufacturing sector is supporting growth within both logistics and warehousing real estate.
The economy in Mexico is one of the most stable in Latin America and has maintained steady growth and is

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Turkey Real Estate Report 2015

Turkey Real Estate Report 2015

Date Published: Aug 26 2015

BMI View: We see good long term potential in Turkey's commercial real estate sector as continued growth
in Turkey's freight, retail and infrastructure sector position the country as the key hub and leader of
regional economies. The continued strong demand for commercial properties and relatively high yields
make Turkey an attractive market for investors. However, the uncertainty of Turkey's political landscape
has had a negative effect on domestic business and consumer confidence. The continued strong demand for

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United Kingdom Real Estate Report 2015

United Kingdom Real Estate Report 2015

Date Published: Aug 26 2015

BMI View: Low commodity prices and inflation CPI of 0.0% in Q215 should sustain the robust economy in
the UK over the remainder of 2015 and into 2016. The tertiary sector remains the strongest contributor, at
78% of GDP, a factor we expect to remain resilient, despite current external market volatility, as consumer
spending and domestic demand drive retail and office opportunities over the forecast period.
Domestic demand is expected to remain strong: higher wages coupled with the temporary effects of low

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Iraq Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Iraq Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
Islamic State will remain well entrenched over the coming year, and
Iraqi security forces (ISF) and their allies will focus on re-conquering
the Anbar province. Iraq will maintain formal unity within a fragile
federalised state over the coming decade, with the Kurdish region
retaining significant autonomy but not outright independence.
Stronger headline growth of the Iraqi economy in 2015 will result
from accelerating oil exports. Conversely, domestic expansion will

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Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
The replacement of Saudi Arabia's heir on April 29, along with
other major changes in the country's leadership, represent a further
consolidation of King Salman's authority. That said, the elevation
of the king's son as second in line to the throne is likely to prove a
controversial choice and could spark future instability.
The new king has quickly consolidated his authority over Saudi
Arabia's economic policy apparatus, restructuring the country's administration

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Bahrain Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Bahrain Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
The slump in oil prices presents a challenge to Bahrain's growth
outlook, with the government under pressure to cut spending over
the coming years. That said, we expect development funds from
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to support construction activity,
while strong consumption in Saudi Arabia will feed into Bahrain's
tourism sector. We forecast real economic growth to slow to 2.9%
in 2015 and 2016, compared to an average of 4.0% between 2010
and 2014.

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Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
Growing signs of internal divisions in the ruling ZANU-PF adds to
existing uncertainty over the future of politics in Zimbabwe once
91-year-old President Robert Mugabe retires or dies. Against this
backdrop, a worsening economic climate will put added pressure
on government stability.
Political and policy uncertainty will continue to deter much-needed
investment into the moribund Zimbabwean economy, while a weak
harvest, depreciating South African rand and lower commodity prices

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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
T he Kazakh government will prioritise aid to state companies over
households in its policy response to declining public revenues from
lower oil prices. Nevertheless, the pace of fiscal consolidation will fall
short of eroding living standards to the extent that they destabilise
the regime of President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
T he collapse of Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbayev's cabinet in April
has heightened regulatory and political uncertainty, casting a dark

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Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
Singapore's restructuring drive continues, and record tightness in the
city-state's labour market is acting as a drag on real GDP growth.
However, we do not see the ruling People's Action Party (PAP)
easing its immigration measures in any significant way ahead of
parliamentary elections.
The PAP is likely to call elections in H215 in order to capitalise
on positive sentiment surrounding the country's 50th anniversary
since independence, as well as the government's bumper budget
for FY2015/16.

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Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
We believe that most of the English-speaking Caribbean will continue
to see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters as the
US growth story begins to gain ground. That said, even with a modest
acceleration in growth, those countries most reliant on tourism
and financial services will continue to struggle, as we expect these
industries are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels in the foreseeable
future. Indeed, while we expect that lower precious metals prices will

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Kosovo and Montenegro Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Kosovo and Montenegro Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
The risk of social instability is rising in Kosovo as the government
is on course to implement fiscal austerity measures as part of its
forthcoming Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF. On the foreign
policy arena, we highlight three main scenarios for Kosovo’s relations
with Serbia, all of which are likely to compound the deteriorating
social stability scene to a different degree.
T he Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) agreed between the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and Kosovo in early June (which needs to be

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Spain Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Spain Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
Spain's economic recovery will outpace the eurozone in 2015 and
2016.
This recovery will mainly be driven by private consumption, with
households' benefitting from cheap oil and recovering consumer
confidence.
Rising political uncertainty will pose one of the main risks to the
country's economic recovery.
The rise of a four-party political system is making elections due by
December 2015 very hard to call, with Spain probably headed for
its first coalition government since its transition to democracy.

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Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
Partisan manoeuvring, ethnic divisions, and complex governing
structures combine to make Bosnia-Herzegovina's political system
largely dysfunctional. With few signs that radical improvements are
forthcoming in even after last year's elections, we expect the country
to muddle through in the coming years, with frustrating delays to
badly-needed reforms.
The economy has shown considerable resistance to the catastrophic
floods that hit the country in summer 2014, with the downturn in

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Latvia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Latvia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
Latvia's economic recovery will continue in 2016, although we
emphasise that strong headline real GDP per capita growth and
labour market improvements are partly the result of high levels of
emigration.
We see small but growing scope for the government to ease up on
its long-held policy of fiscal austerity.
The Russian embargo on EU agricultural goods has weakened the
growth outlook, and Latvia will be among EU states most severely
affected.
Growth will remain subdued due to the need for further deleveraging.

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Sri Lanka Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Sri Lanka Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
The Sri Lankan rupee depreciated 2.0% in H115, and we expect the
currency to weaken further against the US dollar over the coming
quarters, to LKR135.00/USD and LKR138.00/USD by end-2015
and 2016, respectively. However, strong tourism earnings growth
and a positive real interest rate environment will likely provide some
support for the rupee.
As electoral politics once again take centre stage in Sri Lanka, fiscal
consolidation efforts by the government will likely take a hiatus

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Bulgaria Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Bulgaria Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
Bulgaria’s debt and deficit will continue to increase over the coming
years, having grown considerably in 2014 due to a bank bailout and
weak revenue growth. Nevertheless, the country will remain on a
sustainable fiscal trajectory due in part to its exceptionally low public
load.
Domestic demand will pick up considerably in 2015 as consumer
purchasing power is bolstered by low global oil prices.
W e are forecasting Bulgaria’s current account to continue posting

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Mongolia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Mongolia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
The Mongolian government will continue to keep on good terms with
its neighbours. Mongolia remains at risk of becoming dependent on
China, and therefore it will continue to pursue investment ties with
other countries in the US, India, as well as states in the North Asian
region such as Japan in its so called 'third neighbour' foreign policy.
Weak mining-related investment, subdued export demand due to a
cooling Chinese economy, and a slowdown in the construction and

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Switzerland Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Switzerland Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
Switzerland's growth trajectory over the medium term will be increasingly
powered by consumer spending.
The government's robust fiscal position implies it will be able to step
in and boost growth in the event that any external shock puts a sharp
break on Swiss growth.
Although the Swiss National Bank's removed its CHF1.20/EUR floor
on January 15, it will continue to intervene in FX markets in order
to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Beyond the next several

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Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Date Published: Aug 25 2015

Core Views
We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism
sector and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real
GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.
We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year
2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment. We see a high
likelihood of additional defaults following the missed debt-servicing
payment by the Public Finance Corporation.
An agreement struck between the US and Cuba involving the release

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