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Nordics Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Nordics Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: The Nordics consumer outlook remains gloomy as the regional economies are expected to feel
the negative effects of the slowdown in the eurozone. In 2014 and 2015 real GDP (year-on-year) growth in
each country is not expected to exceed 2.8%. Heavy household debt load will continue to curb private
consumption in Denmark and Norway, while Sweden and Finland will suffer from relatively high and sticky
unemployment levels.
Key Forecasts
Denmark
■ Food consumption (local currency) growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014: +4.0%; compound annual

$1,295.00
Algeria Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Algeria Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: We recently revised upwards our forecasts for economic growth in Algeria, and now expect to
see nominal GDP growing at a compound annual rate of 10.9% between 2014 and 2018 (up from a
previous forecast of 8.3%), as we are more positive about private consumption, and expect to see strong
growth across the food and drinks sector. We continue to view inflation and political unrest as the biggest
risks to consumption.
Headline Industry Data
■ 2014 per capita food consumption year-on-year (y-o-y) growth (local currency) = +8.8%; forecast

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Tunisia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Tunisia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: We reaffirm our optimistic view on Tunisia's political transition, and expect a combination of
renewed business and consumer confidence and low base effects will lead to growth of 3.9% in 2015.
Assuming political stability ensues, we forecast Tunisian food consumption growth to accelerate from 4.7%
in 2014 to 6.9% in 2016 and 2017.
Despite the signing of a new constitution in February 2014, a high level of political uncertainty continues to

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Argentina Food and Drink Report 2015

Argentina Food and Drink Report 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

Argentina's struggling economy, plagued by high inflation and ongoing currency devaluation, will continue
to have a negative impact on the country's food and drink sector. After considerable sales decline (in USD
terms) in 2014, the industry is expected to enter the path of slow recovery throughout the rest of our forecast
period to 2018. Nonetheless, the improvement will be negligible in 2015 with the risks lying firmly to the
downside.
Headline Industry Data

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Cameroon Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Cameroon Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

Increasing oil output and buoyant consumer spending will contribute to accelerating Cameroonian
economic growth in 2014 and beyond. This bodes well for Cameroon's food and drink industry, which will
benefit from rising private consumption levels as well as a favourable demographic situation. Coming from
a relatively low base, a number of segments in the food and drink industry will experience strong growth
rates to 2018 thus offering attractive investment opportunities.

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China Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

China Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

In China, we forecast private consumption to grow by an average of 8.1% out to 2018, as Beijing tries to rebalance
the economy towards consumption and away from investment. Although this will be a very difficult
balancing act, given that it could result in a sharp slowdown in overall growth, the Xi Jinping and Li
Keqiang administration is somewhat more hawkish than previous leaders and will continue to press ahead
with economic rebalancing. Important policies include raising minimum wages, liberalising the financial

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Estonia Food and Drink Report 2015

Estonia Food and Drink Report 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI Industry View
The Estonian retail sector remains positive and is planning further expansion of both ranges and premises
during 2015, with mass grocery retail players being no exception. The country's economy has turned a
corner and will post relatively strong real GDP growth over the next two years. Although Estonia's
unemployment will fall at a slower rate, household incomes will continue to increase and this rising
domestic demand will more than offset lower export growth, as relations with Russia remain strained.

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Germany Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Germany Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: Our outlook for Germany's food and drink industry has turned more cautious, as the country's
major economic and private consumption indicators signal a potential slowdown over the coming quarters.
While we have maintained our forecasts for the Germany's food and drink sector, we highlight downside
risks arising from the ongoing boycott of German exports to Russia and the subsequent weakness in wage
growth.
Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

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Hong Kong Food and Drink Report 2015

Hong Kong Food and Drink Report 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: Despite largely favourable business and regulatory environment, food and drink market in
Hong Kong is highly mature and saturated thus presenting limited growth opportunities for foreign
investors. Economic headwinds facing the territory over the coming quarters will put a further restraint on
consumer spending. That said, we believe that innovative, convenience-oriented and private label products
will continue to enjoy relatively high popularity over the coming year.
Headline Industry Data

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Israel Food and Drink Report 2015

Israel Food and Drink Report 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

As the Israeli economy steps on to a firmer macroeconomic footing in 2015 and the government gradually
eases its austerity measures, which have been negatively affecting private consumption over the past year,
Israel's food and drink industry is set to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% in
local currency terms between 2013 and 2018. However, stronger growth will be prevented by already high
per capita spending on food and drink and the relative maturity of the market.
Headline Industry Data

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Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: Whilst the devaluation of the teng in early 2014 and elevated consumer price inflation (forecast
to stay at over 8% in 2015) will impact on household spending, private consumption is set to remain the
primary driver of Kazakh economic growth and this keeps the outlook positive for spending on food and
drink. Future drivers of growth will be portfolio expansion by major manufacturers and importers,
including strong marketing and promotional campaigns targeting younger and more aspirational

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Libya Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Libya Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 26 2014

BMI View: The Libyan food and drink industry will continue to suffer from worsening political instability
and severe government spending cuts, and the dire humanitarian situation will contribute to shrinking
private consumption growth. While we predict that the Libyan economy will return to growth in 2015 from
a sharp contraction in 2014, the headline print will mask a continued crisis in the domestic economy.
We project real GDP growth of 16.7% in 2015, from a 27.6% contraction in 2014, although this economic

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Bahrain Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Bahrain Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Despite some downside risks, we maintain our positive outlook on food consumption growth in
Bahrain throughout the forecast period. We forecast food consumption growth in local currency terms
falling only slightly from the 6.4% forecast for 2014, supported as it is by strong growth in the mass grocery
retail sector. Real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2014 is expected to be exceeded in 2015 and 2016 with growth of
above 4% forecast for both years. However, employment and wage growth have slowed in recent months
and are yet to show signs of improvement.

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Brazil Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Brazil Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

We expect real private consumption growth in Brazil to remain moderate in the coming quarters, in line
with our full-year forecast of 2.3%, up from 1.7% in 2013. This is underpinned by or view that currency
depreciation will continue to erode households' purchasing power and high interest rates will temper
demand for credit (see 'Weaker Consumer To See Economic Recovery Falter', February 21). We also
expect weak consumer confidence to cap private consumption this year, with households less likely to

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Cote d'Ivoire Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Cote d'Ivoire Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

Côte d'Ivoire is among Sub-Saharan Africa's fastest-growing economies, supporting our view that the
country's food, beverage and retail sectors have a very positive medium-term outlook. Over our five-year
forecast period, an advantageous domestic demographic picture and the highly underdeveloped nature of the
local market will leave tremendous room for growth. We still expect to see average annual real GDP growth
of close to 9% between 2014 and 2018. By our forecasts, this places Côte d'Ivoire as the fourth fastestgrowing

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Gabon Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Gabon Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

President Ali Bongo has proved to be a much more active economic reformer than his father, working hard
to court foreign investors into Gabon and diversify the economy away from stagnating oil production. He
has invested in infrastructure, brought in foreign experts and launched an ambitious programme of social
spending to address widespread poverty. However, we stress that government targets of transforming the
country into a major economic centre by 2025 are unreasonably optimistic. Gabon's small workforce,

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United Arab Emirates Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

United Arab Emirates Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: We maintain our bullish outlook on the UAE's economies as a wealth of data points to
continued growth. Consumer and business sentiment remains positive, underlining our particularly bright
outlook for household consumption and fixed investment over the coming quarters. Following estimated
real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2013, we forecast the economy to expand by a more moderate 3.9% in 2014,
before picking up to 4.0% in 2015. We also forecast real private final consumption growth to come in at

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Zambia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Zambia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: We maintain an optimistic outlook for the country's food and drink industry over our forecast
period. With expectations for strong economic growth, a favourable demographic profile and a gradually
emerging middle class, Zambia remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in the region.
That said, short-term challenges remain, including continued pressures on an already ailing Zambian
kwacha and the prospect of industrial unrest within the public sector workforce. With the World Bank

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Australia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Australia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 12 2014

Although we are revising up our real GDP growth forecast for Australia for 2014 to 2.8% from 2.3%
previously, we remain below consensus, and expect growth to slow to 2.3% in 2015 as the strong
construction picture struggles to counteract the weakness in external demand.
High levels of household debt, threats of higher taxes, softening job market and income outlook, together
with possible declines in house prices lead us to maintain our subdued outlook for private consumption for

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Botswana Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Botswana Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 12 2014

Botswana's underperforming power sector continues to have a negative impact on the country's economic
growth prospects and falling diamond exports have worsened the county's growth prospects. In light of this,
we have readjusted real GDP growth for 2014 downwards to 4.7% (from 5.2%) and forecast the same rate
of growth for 2015. We expect sedate growth in private consumption, which despite a recent hike in public
sector wages we forecast will reach just 3.6% in 2014. In 2015 we expect private consumption growth to

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