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Cote d'Ivoire Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Cote d'Ivoire Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

Côte d'Ivoire is among Sub-Saharan Africa's fastest-growing economies, supporting our view that the
country's food, beverage and retail sectors have a very positive medium-term outlook. Over our five-year
forecast period, an advantageous domestic demographic picture and the highly underdeveloped nature of the
local market will leave tremendous room for growth. We still expect to see average annual real GDP growth
of close to 9% between 2014 and 2018. By our forecasts, this places Côte d'Ivoire as the fourth fastestgrowing

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Gabon Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Gabon Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

President Ali Bongo has proved to be a much more active economic reformer than his father, working hard
to court foreign investors into Gabon and diversify the economy away from stagnating oil production. He
has invested in infrastructure, brought in foreign experts and launched an ambitious programme of social
spending to address widespread poverty. However, we stress that government targets of transforming the
country into a major economic centre by 2025 are unreasonably optimistic. Gabon's small workforce,

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United Arab Emirates Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

United Arab Emirates Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: We maintain our bullish outlook on the UAE's economies as a wealth of data points to
continued growth. Consumer and business sentiment remains positive, underlining our particularly bright
outlook for household consumption and fixed investment over the coming quarters. Following estimated
real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2013, we forecast the economy to expand by a more moderate 3.9% in 2014,
before picking up to 4.0% in 2015. We also forecast real private final consumption growth to come in at

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Zambia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Zambia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: We maintain an optimistic outlook for the country's food and drink industry over our forecast
period. With expectations for strong economic growth, a favourable demographic profile and a gradually
emerging middle class, Zambia remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in the region.
That said, short-term challenges remain, including continued pressures on an already ailing Zambian
kwacha and the prospect of industrial unrest within the public sector workforce. With the World Bank

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Bahrain Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Bahrain Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

BMI View: Despite some downside risks, we maintain our positive outlook on food consumption growth in
Bahrain throughout the forecast period. We forecast food consumption growth in local currency terms
falling only slightly from the 6.4% forecast for 2014, supported as it is by strong growth in the mass grocery
retail sector. Real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2014 is expected to be exceeded in 2015 and 2016 with growth of
above 4% forecast for both years. However, employment and wage growth have slowed in recent months
and are yet to show signs of improvement.

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Brazil Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Brazil Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 19 2014

We expect real private consumption growth in Brazil to remain moderate in the coming quarters, in line
with our full-year forecast of 2.3%, up from 1.7% in 2013. This is underpinned by or view that currency
depreciation will continue to erode households' purchasing power and high interest rates will temper
demand for credit (see 'Weaker Consumer To See Economic Recovery Falter', February 21). We also
expect weak consumer confidence to cap private consumption this year, with households less likely to

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Angola Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Angola Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 12 2014

BMI View: Angola remains one of the most attractive, yet risky, food and drink markets in Sub-Saharan
Africa. Strong economic expansion, combined with a young and rapidly growing population and plenty of
untapped market opportunities, means the country holds a lot of potential for foreign investors. That said,
we highlight Angola's challenging regulatory and operating environment, as illustrated by recently
introduced import duties for numerous food and drink products.
Key Forecasts

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Australia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Australia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 12 2014

Although we are revising up our real GDP growth forecast for Australia for 2014 to 2.8% from 2.3%
previously, we remain below consensus, and expect growth to slow to 2.3% in 2015 as the strong
construction picture struggles to counteract the weakness in external demand.
High levels of household debt, threats of higher taxes, softening job market and income outlook, together
with possible declines in house prices lead us to maintain our subdued outlook for private consumption for

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Botswana Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Botswana Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 12 2014

Botswana's underperforming power sector continues to have a negative impact on the country's economic
growth prospects and falling diamond exports have worsened the county's growth prospects. In light of this,
we have readjusted real GDP growth for 2014 downwards to 4.7% (from 5.2%) and forecast the same rate
of growth for 2015. We expect sedate growth in private consumption, which despite a recent hike in public
sector wages we forecast will reach just 3.6% in 2014. In 2015 we expect private consumption growth to

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Colombia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Colombia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 12 2014

BMI View: We forecast that a continued decline in unemployment levels and rising access to credit will
support strong ongoing real private consumption growth in 2015. Despite the country's fairly inflexible and
costly labour market, the lack of bureaucracy involved in setting up a business and well developed financial
markets continue to make Colombia an attractive investment destination across a number of sectors
including food and drink.
Headline Industry Data (in local currency)

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Kenya Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Kenya Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 12 2014

The outlook for Kenya's food and drink industry continues to be positive, with strong growth expected over
the short-to-medium term. The success of premium-chain coffee shops highlights the likelihood that
premiumisation will play a major part in the growth of many segments of the Kenyan food and drink
industry. Going forward, the mass grocery sector is likely to be a key growth area with foreign investment
from South African retailers likely over the next year or two.
Headline Industry Data

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Namibia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Namibia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 12 2014

Despite Namibia having relatively high per capita incomes of USD5,248 in 2013, the country's income
distribution is among the worst in the world. While unemployment remains high (estimated by the World
Bank at 40%), poverty has been on a downward trend for more than a decade. The Fourth National
Development Plan (launched in 2012) aims to tackle these problems with a programme designed to run until
2017. However, the country's relatively small population and rising concerns about a looming energy crisis

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Assessment of China's Beer Market 2014-2017

Assessment of China's Beer Market 2014-2017

Date Published: Nov 8 2014
Executive Summary
China which is the largest beer market by volume globally, by 2017, is expected to become the largest beer market in the world by sales too surpassing the United States. This is due to the fast increasing disposable income coupled with the growing drinking age population in the country. 
 
$800.00
Bulgaria Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Bulgaria Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 5 2014
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Caribbean Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Caribbean Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 5 2014
Though signs of growth are beginning to return to Caribbean states, many economies within the region continue to feel the spill-over effects of the 2009 financial crisis, which strongly shook the region's key industries of tourism and finance. Though the tourism industry is slowly regaining momentum in the region, we believe that it will take some time for pre-financial crisis growth.
 
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Croatia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Croatia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 5 2014
Croatia's economy will stagnate in 2015 and 2016. Real GDP growth will lag behind the rest of the EU, as domestic demand is constrained by a lack of progress tackling competitiveness issues. Private consumption will drag on real GDP growth over the coming quarters.
 
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Czech Republic Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Czech Republic Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 5 2014
High-frequency indicator readings in Q314 already lend support to our view private consumption is poised to slow in H214. Retail sales growth slowed to 6.2% y-o-y in July from 8.5% the previous month, while consumer confidence continued to deteriorate in August from the previous months.
 
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Greece Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Greece Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 5 2014
We believe that deflation has further to run in Greece and now expect a return to positive inflation to occur in 2016, from 2015 previously. This will be underpinned by weak domestic demand, a fractured credit transmission channel, relatively restrictive monetary policy (despite recent efforts by the European Central Bank to provide monetary stimulus) and the lingering strength of the euro. Moreover, we warn that prolonged deflation poses a risk to economic growth and debt sustainability.
 

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Malaysia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Malaysia Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 5 2014
The Malaysian economy's strong real GDP growth during 2014, which we forecast reaching 4.4% for the full-year, was driven by strong exports and increased domestic consumption. Proposed changes to the country's fuel subsidy scheme and the introduction in April 2015 of a 6% goods and services tax (GST) are likely to produce a slowdown in domestic consumption.
 
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Mozambique Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Mozambique Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Date Published: Nov 5 2014
Although economic data for Mozambique have been giving off mixed signals over the past few months, with private consumption growth slowing down to 4.8% in 2014, the ceasefire between the opposition party Renamo and the government will stimulate growth in 2015. Because Mozambique is one of the poorest countries in the world, Mozambicans spend a great proportion of their income on food and drink.
 
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